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UK Follows US in ‘Upgrading’ Taiwan Ties & Escalating Tensions With China, Analysts Say_我的网站

A | 王星事件的相关讨论，还在持续。 The timing of the London visit by Taipei’s trade negotiator John Deng was important, says Dr. Victor Teo, political scientist specializing in international relations in the Asia-Pacific, because if China were to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) before the island, “it would mean the certain exclusion of Taiwan from this trade body in the future.”,After the reported trade talks in London on 16 June, Beijing, whose official policy envisions a peaceful unification of Taiwan with Mainland China, was quick to reiterate its stance.,“Taiwan is an inseparable part of China, it is not a country, which is universally recognized by the international community,” a Chinese diplomatic spokesperson was cited by Politico as saying.,The UK Trade Department stopped short of offering any clarifications, while confirming the meeting of its officials with Deng.,The British side was governed by “political and economic interests” when it opted to risk igniting China’s wrath, suggests Dr. Victor Teo.,The trade talks between the UK and Taiwan may also reflect a “change in UK’s policy toward Taiwan as a result of changes in its China policy,” notes Dr. Zhang Baohui, director of the Center for Asian Pacific Studies at Lingnan University in Hong Kong.,“The US led this trend by comprehensively upgrading its relations with Taipei since the Trump administration,” says Baohui, adding that Britain tended to tread with caution in its relations with Taiwan in the past. However, now the UK is “adjusting its China policy.”,The clash over Hong Kong, according to Dr. Zhang Baohui, “significantly enhanced their differences and mutual strategic mistrust.”,“For example, it sent an aircraft carrier to the South China Sea last summer, very much to the disliking of Beijing. The UK also formed a new trilateral security mechanism with Australia and the US last year while not naming China as its target. The UK's trade talk with Taiwan could be consistent with this new trend,” he said.,Beijing's reaction to any improper statement such as challenging Taiwan as an inseparable part of China can be expected, insisted Dr. Chang Ching, research fellow at the Taiwan-based Society for Strategic Studies.,However, the British government has a clear policy towards the sensitive One-China issue, the prominent military expert on the People's Liberation Army and regional security in Taiwan noted.,China Urges US to ‘Revoke Arms Sales Plan’ With Taiwan on News of $120 Million Deal for Ship Parts9 June, 20:46 GMT,“In the aspect of trade and commerce, any discussion with representatives from Taipei regarding the participation in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership trading arrangement does not violate the One-China principle kept by Her Majesty's government. Nonetheless, it is originated by a media report and cannot be fully verified as the British official position,” he stated.,Dr. Chang Ching advised against defining such a statement as a “policy shift” within British government diplomacy.,US Provokes China in New Row Over Taiwan17 June, 09:14 GMT,‘Trade With China’ Factor,Regarding the regional fallout from a possible row between the UK and China over Taiwan, it is too early to predict the consequences, according to Dr. Zhang Baohui.,Underscoring that unlike Sino-US relations, Britain and China are not “strategic competitors,” he clarified:,“The UK has already boosted its presence in the region by its new trilateral security pact with Australia and the United States. It has also enhanced defense cooperation with Japan, by jointly developing the next generation jet fighter. However, Britain should have less incentives, compared to the US to have a contentious relationship with China.”,Sino-British relations should not have a major impact on the region in the foreseeable future, Dr. Zhang Baohui concluded.,Any spat over Taiwan would boost tensions in UK-China relations and West-China relations, Dr. Victor Teo suggested, but underscored the “declining economic circumstances” currently being faced by many countries. Accordingly, trade with China would likely become more important, according to him.,“As most Western countries have agreed on the 'One China Principle', it is hard to see how they can persist in promoting Taiwan’s interests steadfastly at the expense of their relationship with China,” Dr. Victor Teo said.,A row between London and Beijing would not affect anything in the region at all, Dr. Chang Ching asserted, adding:,“After all, Beijing is very near and London is too remote."。谭主对这一事件进行回溯和复盘后发现，这件事的发酵主要经历了三个阶段。从图上可以看到，第一个阶段，舆论场的讨论主要围绕“救援”展开——1月5日深夜，王星女友通过社交平台求助，此后几天，网友都在接力转发。1月8日之后，舆论场开始出现大量“内部曝光”的帖文，称找到了王星事件的“幕后老板”——“金老虎”。这个人，被形容为是“来自缅甸最大的劳务中介”。与此同时，泰国警方也初步确认王星是人口贩卖受害者。10日，舆论场集中出现的热门关键词为“妙瓦底”，并且被定义为了一个新的“诈骗聚集地”。总结起来，从舆论讨论的趋势来看，重点已经由对王星个体的关注，变成了对整个妙瓦底以及电诈的关注，由此也衍生了一系列的疑惑：电诈为何屡禁不止？这样的疑问有一个重要背景是，一直以来，“电诈”都集中在缅北地区。而妙瓦底，位于缅甸东南部。实际上，早在2021年，西南政法大学的谢玲教授就指出，“电诈”的窝点是动态变化的，诈骗团伙会选择更适合窝点发展和成本低的地方迁移。而妙瓦底，正是诈骗团队的迁移目的地之一。谢玲给谭主总结了妙瓦底的几个特点：首先是妙瓦底的地理位置，妙瓦底是缅甸与泰国交界的边境城市。妙瓦底的公路连接泰国曼谷和缅甸仰光，其水路，则是泰国到缅甸最便捷的水上运输通道。也就是说，妙瓦底很适合藏匿，也适合偷渡，这也意味着，它适合诈骗团伙的人员发展。其次，妙瓦底的赌博业发达，实体赌场很多，这也会为电诈集团洗钱提供更多的渠道。还有一个原因，是妙瓦底的生活成本低。西南政法大学教授谢玲：在妙瓦底北部的别墅区中，300多平米的办公楼月租在15-25万人民币左右，比缅北办公用房月租约低5-10万元人民币，同时，妙瓦底的外勤人力成本也处在缅甸的最低水平线以下，这样的犯罪成本支出，完全在诈骗团伙的承受范围之内。

B | 诈骗团伙的逃窜与隐匿，也与公安部门的严厉打击有关系。1月初，公安部通报称，自2023年7月部署开展打击缅北涉我电信网络诈骗犯罪专项工作以来，公安部依托中缅执法安全合作机制，指挥云南、浙江等多地公安机关联合作战。目前，缅北果敢地区规模化电诈园区被全部铲除。其他的一些电诈团队，只能往腹地逃窜——妙瓦底。在看到中缅联合执法行动后，谭主也注意到，舆论场现在也出现一种声音：我们为什么不在妙瓦底执法？中国人民公安大学侦查学院副教授王晓伟：中国警方在境外没有执法权，联合执法需要通过国际警务合作的渠道来开展。